Südafrika Index der Frühindikatoren

The composite leading business cycle indicator in Africa rose by 0.4% month-on-month in October 2025, rebounding from a 1.2% fall in September, as increases in six of the ten available component time series outweighed the decreases in the remaining four. The largest positive contributions came from an increase in South Africa’s US-dollar-denominated export commodity price index and the improvement in the RMB/BER business confidence index. In contrast, the main negative contributors were a slowdown in the six-month smoothed growth rate of real M1 money supply and a narrowing of the interest rate spread. Meanwhile, the composite coincident indicator edged up 0.1% in September, unchanged from the previous month, supported by gains in the industrial production index and employment in the formal non-agricultural sector. At the same time, the lagging indicator increased 0.8% in September.