Japan Kerninflation

Japan’s core consumer price index, which excludes fresh food but includes energy, increased 2.7% year-on-year in August 2025, easing for the third month in a row to its lowest level since November 2024. Still, core inflation has held above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target, sustaining expectations for another rate hike later this year. The central bank is widely expected to leave policy unchanged at its September meeting as the economy faces domestic and external headwinds, particularly from US tariffs. Even so, markets anticipate a possible 25 basis point hike in October amid signs of economic resilience. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has continued to strike a cautious note, emphasizing that “underlying inflation” has yet to show a stable alignment with the 2% target.