Japan Kerninflation

Japan’s core consumer price index, which excludes fresh food but includes energy costs, rose 3.2% year-on-year in March 2025, up from 3% in February and in line with market expectations. The data supports the Bank of Japan’s approach of gradual interest rate hikes, though rising economic risks, particularly from sweeping U.S. tariffs, cast a shadow over the outlook. The inflation figures arrive ahead of the BOJ’s policy meeting next week, where the central bank is expected to keep its benchmark rate unchanged at 0.5% and lower its growth forecasts. Core inflation has remained at or above the BOJ’s 2% target for nearly three years, driven by persistently high food prices and rising wages. While further rate hikes are anticipated later this year, the U.S. trade measures add uncertainty to Japan’s export-reliant economy and rate-hike path.