Pakistan Zinssatz

The State Bank of Pakistan cut its benchmark policy rate by 50 basis points to 10.5% in December, marking the second rate cut this year and surprising market expectations, which had forecast no change. The move followed the IMF’s approval of a $1.2 billion disbursement, which bolstered foreign exchange reserves to over $15.8 billion and enabled the government to service its debt. Inflation remained within the 5–7% target range between July and November FY26, supported by moderate global commodity prices and anchored expectations, though core inflation remains sticky. High-frequency indicators point to continued momentum in industry and agriculture, with large-scale manufacturing up 4.1% YoY in Q1-FY26 and wheat production expected to exceed targets. While exports face pressure amid global headwinds, robust FX reserves and improving fiscal balances provide room for policy support.